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In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or “scenarios,” Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the present—an assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the company’s innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future.
In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.
- Sales Rank: #1067778 in Books
- Published on: 2014-02-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x .60" w x 6.00" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 185 pages
Review
“This is a major case study of scenario planning, something that is not easily available to the student of scenario planning.” (Kees van der Heijden director & cofounder of the Global Business Network and professor emeritus of Strathclyde University)
“As someone who teaches scenario planning at the graduate and undergraduate level, I would definitely start with this story as a frame to talk about the diverse practices that have sprouted up around and since Shell’s landmark practice.” (Cynthia Selin Arizona State University)
"Global scenarios are increasingly relevant in today's fast moving, interdependent world than when they began to be developed 50 years ago. Uncertainty should not be an excuse for failing to shape a brighter future, but an incentive to pursue better policies for better lives." (Angel Gurr�a secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
About the Author
Angela Wilkinson is counselor for strategic foresight with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Roland Kupers is an associate fellow in the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.
Most helpful customer reviews
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
If you want to or are using Scenario-based Strategy thisis essential reading
By Louis
This book has been carefully crafted by two of the best practitioners and thinkiers in the field of Scenario-based Strategy. They have assembled the definitive record by speaking to everybody who had a direct hand in creating the important field of scenarios.IN these times of rapid change the world needs to understand how to deal with change as a constant and avoid dealing with continuous, disruptive change as a project. Leadership needs to build infrastructure for continuous learning as competitive advantage. This exciting perspective on futures work is evidence based and will stabilize the practice on the foundations upon which it was developed in Shell Group Planning.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Amazon Customer
Great
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